Pump, wholesale and spot

LiveGasPrices

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litres
Regular gasoline
Surrey, BC
Half a tank left. Fill up today, or wait a couple of days?
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$0.00
Weekly average pump price
0.00 /L

Next 7 days

Recent pump Projection Likely range
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For the curious Open the full analysis
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Where your pump price comes from

Every litre at the pump is crude oil, plus the refining margin, plus distribution and marketing, plus tax. Crude is usually the biggest single piece. Taxes are the most predictable piece, because they are set by law rather than by the market.

The forecast model

A short horizon pump forecast works because retail lags wholesale by roughly one to two weeks. We fit an error correction model: how fast does the pump close the gap to where wholesale says it should be, and how much of this week and last week's wholesale move passes through.

How fast prices react

Pumps tend to rise faster than they fall, the so called rockets and feathers effect. We fit a separate pass through for wholesale increases and decreases to measure it.

If crude moves, where does the pump go next week

We map a change in the Brent crude price through the fitted crude to wholesale to retail chain. This is a what if, not a crude forecast, since no one can reliably predict oil.

History: pump versus wholesale

The pump line trails the wholesale line. That gap, and how quickly it closes, is the whole basis of the short term forecast.

Pump Wholesale

How we built this, in plain terms

The verdict is a nowcast of the input stack, not a price forecast. Today's pump reflects the wholesale cost of about two days ago, and we can see today's wholesale now, so most of the next day or two of pump movement is already set, just not posted at the sign yet. We start from the last surveyed pump price for your city, then roll it forward by the move in its real inputs over the roughly two days the pump trails them: crude oil priced off the benchmark your region actually tracks (West Texas Intermediate for the West and centre, Brent for the import fed East Coast and eastern Canada), the refining margin (the rack move net of crude, which is the crack spread and rises when refineries are tight, in maintenance, or switching to summer blend), and the Canadian dollar for cities that pay in it. Each input is scaled by how much of a wholesale move actually reaches the pump, then amplified by the sales tax that rides on top of a moving base; the fixed per litre taxes are added as constants and do not move. The bars under the verdict show each contribution. Crude prints clean and flows through raw, while the refining margin is taken as a short median, so a single noisy day, such as a month end futures roll, cannot swing the call. Their sum is the catch up the pump still owes. The forward bar then adds where the trend is heading: the recent slope of the rack blended at full weight with your region's spot (West Coast for BC and Seattle, New York Harbor for the East, even though that spot lags a few days), plus an expected catch up when gasoline is unusually cheap or rich relative to crude, since the crack tends to revert, plus a modest upside risk when current North American refinery news points to a disruption. Crude, the rack and the news are today's real time signals; the pump trails them by about two days, so the call is for the next day or two starting today. Because rising costs pass through to the pump fast and nearly in full while falling costs arrive slowly as stations hold the margin, a fill signal is firmer than a wait signal, and we discount the saving on the way down. International refinery news is left as context only, since global crude already prices it in. For your real site, drop the fuel.json your PHP cron writes beside this page and it loads automatically, the same code running on live numbers.

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